tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3022888953328060401.post8889941179383492860..comments2024-03-29T03:11:21.548-07:00Comments on DaveinOlyWA: Information Part Two; TMIDaveinOlyWAhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16745403231379474738noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3022888953328060401.post-33387316458742421072012-11-18T00:22:14.584-08:002012-11-18T00:22:14.584-08:00there is a law out there that states that any vehi...there is a law out there that states that any vehicle sold that has a warranty, the manufacturer must supply spare parts to cover that warranty so anyone is supposed to be able to buy parts out of pocket if so desired. <br /><br />Tesla's program of having one buy a battery pack now against future degradation and technological advances that would lower pricing serves Tesla more than it does the consumer. a 53 KWh pack probably will be $12,000 in 10 years but Tesla will get $12,000 plus interest. Granted there is no way to really tell how the economy will go, but 12,000 in todays money could be several thousand more 10 years from now.<br /><br />On the supplemental battery thought; there is already 3rd party vendors offering "booster" packs. prices not so good right now, but like anything else, those prices will come down as wellDaveinOlyWAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16745403231379474738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3022888953328060401.post-83546754843008071272012-11-17T17:53:12.532-08:002012-11-17T17:53:12.532-08:00Yes, I think you have it right: the problem is tha...Yes, I think you have it right: the problem is that the current cost to produce the battery pack is very high, and Nissan is effectively subsidizing it in the expectation that costs will be much lower by the time most people would be looking at a replacement (say 8-10 years), assuming they can achieve volumes by then. They also consider their battery cost a closely-guarded trade secret, since the key to EV success is reaching a tipping point where battery cost/capacity makes sense to a large number of buyers. It is indeed a common question for potential buyers to ask what a replacement pack will cost, and Nissan doesn't want to scare people off. Nor do they want to replace a lot of packs at an artificially low price. So, they are caught between these competing interests and feel it's better not to make a cost public at all.<br /><br />I don't agree with that stance. Uncertainty over battery replacement cost was my biggest concern when deciding to purchase a LEAF. I figure that the battery depreciation per mile is probably on par with the cost of the gasoline we're not burning (ca. $0.10 per mile), but decided to purchase anyway, for environmental reasons and to help the industry get off the ground. We are also in the opposite situation, where we might be able to get by till our pack is down to 50-60% capacity (depending on the charging infrastructure at the time).<br /><br />Telsa had a program where new Roadster buyers could pre-purchase a (53kWh) replacement battery pack for $12K, supposedly to express their confidence that battery costs would be much lower in 8-10 years. Doing something similar (at least offering a guaranteed future price) might help Nissan. They already do essentially the same thing with a lease. (My understanding is that Nissan plans to replace the packs in all the off-lease LEAFs before offering them for sale. If true, I really wonder how those will price out, given that the federal subsidy has already been taken.) But they still need to address owned packs that need early replacement. If Nissan is confident in their batteries, and that the number needing premature replacement is small, I think they should subsidize them to at least the level they do in new cars, and make the price public.<br /><br />For future cars, I'd love to see a system where supplemental battery modules could be added to boost/restore capacity, and where partial pack replacements were possible. It'd take a different approach to balancing and power sharing, but not having to replace an entire pack at once would be a huge boon.<br /><br />As far as the focus group: I think it would be a lot better if Nissan gave owners much finer-grained information on battery health (not necessarily right on the dash). I expect a few percent loss per year, so it wouldn't surprise or upset me to see a 1% drop now and then. But I'm really dreading the day that I'll see the first capacity bar disappear from the dash, indicating a full 15% drop in capacity. Better SOH info would also help owners project and plan for a replacement pack, and in the used market. This could be done with a firmware update.A. Singhnoreply@blogger.com