Saturday, January 12, 2019

2019 LEAF Plus Introduced During CES

The press releases are flooding social media with all kinds of information on the upcoming LEAF Plus and its 200+ mile range and not all of it is accurate or understandable!   The information we have is just as superficial as the 2018 LEAF introduction but this time I was not at the reveal so there are a lot of questions unanswered!  But this is how Nissan rolls. Despite being at the 2018 LEAF reveal in Las Vegas in September 2017, there was a lot of question then despite getting a test drive!

The Basics

Ok so the car's appearance has changed little. Its nearly identical in size in every way. There is no doubt in my mind, that there are small changes here and there but nothing significant enough that Nissan wanted to mention.  Now, this also how they roll.  They have IDENTICAL cargo parameters from 2011 on but as we know, the charger was moved from the area (remember the hump, then partial hump?) so we had to have increased the space at least a little.  Also remember, I frequently did the Tetris thing with work equipment in my 2016 so well aware of the spacing in the hatch. But I also did the same for a short period time with my 2018 and there is definitely more space in the 2018.

New "official" statements from Nissan states they redid the framework a bit to allow more battery pack space without sacrificing any cabin space so other than a few millimeters here and there, nothing will look much different.  The 2019 does come in 300 lbs heavier due to the extra batteries. This probably accounts for its lower range verses the smaller lighter Bolt. Realize that the Bolt's thermal management systems uses what would be additional range in the LEAF.  Weight does have its drawbacks!

Performance

Ok, despite being "fattened" up a bit, its faster and in the case of zero to 60, a lot faster.  This will make some happy but I don't need it.  l often wonder if my insistence in using Eco mode all the time is an attempt to reduce the temptation to get in trouble.  My 40 kwh LEAF has more go than I need,  and for those who crave zippy, this promises to have plenty of that but the LEAF Plus puts the go power into the danger, risky, crazy range for me.

Battery

No, still no active cooling and more surprisingly, no new vendor.  It is still NEC battery technology presented by Nissan's and NEC's joint venture, AESC.  Now they claim they have learned a lot about longevity and yada yada but there are a LOT of doubters out there including me and barring a great trade in offer, my current lease is going till Feb, 2021. By then there will have been a lot of talk about whether Nissan has finally found their way.

The new pack is bigger in both capacity and space with the cell count increased by 50%.  The previous configuration had 2 cells in parallel hooked in series with a total of 96 cell pairs totaling 192 cells.  The new pack has 3 cells in parallel with the same 96 sets totaling 288 cells.   It would appear the EPA estimate (not yet official) will use 58 of the reputed 62 kwh available which is a good thing.  A slightly larger unaccessible portion of the pack goes a long way towards reducing degradation.

Charging

Level 2 remains at 6.6 KW. That works out to roughly an 11½ charge time from empty and with 226 miles of range, that won't be very common.  If we look at LEAF driving champ,  Steve "Quarter Million Mile" Marsh.  Even if he didn't charge at work he would be getting home with around 40% left making his charge time just over 6 hours which would be quite easy to manage.

The LEAF Plus keeps chademo but increases the speed to 100 KW peak using a "70 KW" system. I found that statement to be more than a bit strange and guessed (correctly it seems) that the 100 KW would only be during low SOCs slowing to 70 KW probably around 35% SOC.  Nissan says a zero to 80% charge will take 45 mins.  Obviously we are not charging from Zero% SOC and 100% of the pack isn't available so if charging from 10% with no more than 58 kwh available, we are looking at roughly 67 kwh charging speed. That would be huge! and likely only on the first or 2nd charge of the day.

Now EVGO has already committed to upgrading Chademo speeds across its networks but EA has only said CCS speeds would be turned up without mentioning Chademo other than to say the hardware did have 100 KW capability when it was installed.   So we shall see.

Early LEAF Plus adopters will still get NCTC if available in their area but a full 30 mins at 50 KW would be a big improvement. Better yet, the increased cells and capacity likely means no slow downs for at least the first few charges of the day.


Tech

Ok so the press release is about as dry as you can make it so it would be easy to miss a lot of key changes.  Just as the 40 kwh LEAF took a big step forward from the 24/30 kwh LEAFs, the LEAF Plus takes another big step forward as well.

Cosmetically, we get a bigger screen; 8 inches now but its now interactive like a tablet and comes with OTA updates. So no more $$$ to get a map that is reasonably up to date.  I can only hope that OTA's will also cover TSBs and feature improvements.  It is this area that I admire in Tesla the most. Charging stations are cool but the ability to add features long after the customer as left the lot is what really makes Tesla "not your Father's car dealer" for me.

Nissan Energy

To be fair; its mentioned and it very well could be mentioned for the Canadian market only since the press release covers the North American market but if it came here on all trims, this would be a HUGE marketing advantage over other EVs in the same sandbox.

For the unaware, Nissan Energy is two way charging system that can accept a charge from your home or charge your home! 

Nissan to win, you need to offer it standard across all trim lines.  Recently, I went nearly 48 hours without power due to a storm. I had fully charged my LEAF (something I rarely do) in anticipation and I was right. The tree that took out my power fell from my neighbor's house across my driveway.  That big battery could have really come in handy.  I average less than 20 kwh of power usage daily so I could have had 2 days of power from the LEAF Plus.  As it stands, I went and hung out at charging station which was on (along with most of the county).  Home without lights, stove, computer, etc. simply wasn't desirable not to mention it was 50ยบ in the house when I came home on day 2 of the outage.

Oh course for Nissan Energy to work, it has to have an interface to your house so that would have to be purchased but just having the two way power ability is a hacker's dream!  It would be awesome to go "jump" a fellow LEAFer enough to get them to a station 10 miles away.  But that is down the road... :)

Where To Now? 

The LEAF Plus was supposed to be Nissan's grand splash last year.  Why the delay? I have to think the failure to sell AESC might have played a role. Now wondering if the original plan was TMS and we are getting plan B?  Nissan claims that 9 years of experience has taught them how to better manage degradation but that claim has been made before.  I do believe that Nissan believes the expected rate of degradation will be "acceptable" and due to the larger size of the pack, the stress on the individual cells will be much lighter so added robustness is a given.  But now the price range is the same as the major competition from VW, Kia and Hyundai; all of whom are reputed to have liquid TMS.

I have been in the EV market 4 times and each time I picked the LEAF not due to some sort of brand loyalty, I did it because it was the best option for me.  I took advantage of full federal tax credit on leases which resulted in great deals for me.  Combined with the WA State Sales tax exemption (which I took advantage of 5 times with One Prius and the 4 LEAFs) it was a win win.

In my mind, I was perfectly positioned to really get what I wanted at the end of my 2016 lease that would have happened Nov, 10, 2019 but a wreck derailed those plans. A year ago when it happened, the view for 2019 was a Bolt makeover, a $35,000 Tesla,  several Korean and VW entrants, etc.  I mean it was shopper's heaven!

It is now exactly one week away from the anniversary of the event that destroyed the best LEAF I ever had and the outlook for 2019 has changed drastically during the last 51 weeks.  If I were to be in the market this November, I would be taking another leap of faith that Nissan has finally gotten a good handle on the battery situation and due to lack of competition since VW won't be here, The Bolt still sucks along with losing incentives and the Koreans have yet to prove they can provide anything EV in sufficient volumes in a timely manner.  So their very promising (on paper) entries would have been on the streets for too short a period in too little volumes for me to gleem much if any real data from the sure to be mountains of  exceedingly biased "New EV toy nirvana."

This all means my timing would again be bad and the LEAF would likely have been my choice as still the best option out there.

But that was then and this is now and barring a too good to be true trade in, I am committed to Feb 2021 with my current LEAF.  There is no doubt it will be fine for the next two years but after that?  That is a question that is far from being answered.  The residual is a very attractive option. The cost with tax would be still be in the $10K range and the range would be well over 100 miles but as time goes on, I can't ignore the growing feeling I won't be happy with 50 KW charging long term.

9 comments:

  1. excellent david. ...why do you say the bolt sucks? the interior? the narrowness or something i don't know about...and what is 10k in the last paragraph?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. $10K comment is if I were to purchase my current 40 kwh LEAF lease. As far as why the Bolt sucks? I thought that was fairly well known. But the Bolt is an econobox with a big battery. Its smaller than the LEAF, the front seats are an abomination, the tech is lame, but the real thing is it simply screams cheap.

      But as mentioned, I was able to overlook all that if the price was right. It wasn't. I didn't need a car when Chevy was scrambling to make their year end quota and were dumping Bolts at insanely cheap prices in December 2017.

      But the list doesn't end there. The Bolt has a big battery and liquid TMS but a charging profile of a passively cooled 24 kwh LEAF! Like WTF??? I pay for a huge pack only to see the charging rate throttled at 50%?? The charging rate was hardly fast to begin with.

      I mean the Bolt has good points, just not enough of them but again...at the right price but come April 1st, the right price is going to be much harder to find.

      Delete
  2. I agree the Bolt is not comfortable in comparison to the Leaf...seats, etc. and the cheap
    chevy interior. But for someone with about 75 miles of range left, 235 sounds pretty great....then again, CCS is not as prevalent as chademo...yes, I heard some incredible deals in 2017...a girl I spoke to got a lease for like 150 a month...that's not happening again anytime soon...what do you know about degradation on Bolt batteries? is there a "boltspy?" I didn't know that the charging at 440 was so slow...and what happens april 1?

    ReplyDelete
  3. ps, I heard a dealer was offering a bolt for 20k, a 2017, but with 100k miles on it! wtf???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you are seriously interested in getting a Bolt, now is the time. April 1st, the fed tax credit drops to $3750 and right now, Chevy is doing $7,000 cash back on them so you could get one with climate/QC (minimum for any EV imm) for about $25,000 after incentives.

      As far as degradation? Bolt does have a few apps that track various things about the battery but health isn't one of them, at least not on the same level as LEAF Spy so I don't know.

      Like any battery, degradation will happen but to what degree? Hard to say. Also keep in mind; any EV with TMS will suffer greater range hits in extreme climates due to active management of the pack.

      Delete
  4. Dave, care to elaborate on "any EV with TMS will suffer greater range hits in extreme climates due to active management of the pack."

    And yes Nissan Energy sounds great and could be advantage for nissan. I think they called it V2G before. It's the EV mesh networking! driving with Tesla Wall - swiss knife of EVs. and Jump/Jolt a fellow EV driver. Having the V2G in nissan and if on time of use rates it can be good save you some $ on electricity, but this is assuming it it's managed correctly and it doesn't degrade the battery pack any further.

    Anyway this seems to be as official as it gets - straight from the source:
    https://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/nissan-to-create-electric-vehicle-ecosystem

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TMS does not work for free. It it powered by the traction pack. So it can be a shock when temps plunge and range is cut in half. Now, I don't know how valid random Bolter statements are since few are actually driving to the end of the range but there are several posts on it every winter.

      In my LEAF, I do see less range but its not that extreme. So it becomes the "one" thing that is good with passive battery management.

      The issue now is one needs to get a car with large range so they can live in middle never charging too high or running SOC too low. This new LEAF promises to be able to do that.

      As far as whether its a good deal or not? Need to know the actual price and features. Rumors has it that all 3 trims will come with Pro Pilot Assist standard. That would make it interesting.

      Delete
  5. Well, seem like Nissan is doing what tesla is trying to do with their acquisition/merger of solar city.
    Just not in the US:(
    https://www.nissan.co.uk/experience-nissan/electric-vehicle-leadership/storage-solutions.html
    The best thing is that they're repurposing used EV batteries.
    If only they had that in US. Prices seem reasonable.

    ReplyDelete