Guessing many of you spent this past Thursday morning waiting in line somewhere in the World to spend a grand on a dream. Although its only been 2 days, Tesla has already collected deposits from over a quarter million people for the T 3. That is a quarter billion in cash representing over 10 Billion in orders that is projected to take over 3 years to fill with the already optimistic planned production schedule. As always, Youtube has the video of the 3 intro and one thing that is undisputable; Elon Musk, even in his stuttering, halting delivery method, can still put on a great show.
The car is beautiful, the promises lofty, but the details were lacking. But the car is also two years away! There is a limit to predicting the future, especially in the Car World. Specs change on a dime. Until the supply chain is in place AND up to speed; there is no real promise the car will (or can) live up to its billing.
Tesla claims the first 3's will start showing up on the streets in late 2017 or at least 18 months from now. Tesla has never hit a production rollout yet and I don't see them hitting this one either. The likely scenario is no significant deliveries for at least 2 years or Spring 2018. Production for 2018 to be no more than 50,000-75,000 and all those likely to be the high end trims over $50,000. In other words; unlike the EV which has outstanding reliability primarily due to much less moving parts, the manufacturing process has not had that luxury. A single vendor failing to meet its promises could tumble the entire Tesla house of cards!
So, not sure I can agree with Tesla taking deposits on cars that are likely more than 2 years away from delivery with a hype that has caused a backlog of greater than 4 years which means a handful could conceivably not get their T3 until 2022!! But then again, I guess its easier than trying to get an interest free 250 million dollar loan from the bank!
Now I love what Tesla has done and despite my protestations, I am considering a 3 in my future but will still have PLENTY of time for another EV before that. My only hope is that no one put off a plans for an EV to wait for the 3 because they will likely have 3 years or more to wait!
As Elon stated; We need to accelerate our adoption of zero emission vehicles but my fear is that Tesla has effectively cut the market in half with a promise.
Two T models are in production now. Two are selling now. Two. Why not Three?
ReplyDeleteUmmm, I thought there was 3. The Roadster is making a comeback I thought I read somewhere...
Deleteas far as why the T 3 is not up and running? well, they need suppliers first. a trained crew (the ones they have now I am guessing still have not caught up with the X demand...) and they need batteries. Yes, Gigafactory is now producing but guessing they are not even able to supply current product of S and X yet...
They seem to have a vertical supply chain; making most of the parts in house plus experience with 3 vehicle models. My guess is they will have something ready for the Pacific NW before the end of 2017. I was one of many who waited in line at the Washington Square Mall Thursday. My lease is up in November so I may have to make do with our Subaru Forester until the 3 arrives. I am tired of making do with a zip lock bag full of cards, fobs, and bobs that may or may not work at this or that charger. Having to do that every 45 minutes at highway speeds has gotten very old when traveling long distances especially in the FUBAR region between Olympia and Marysville. I have no idea what the changing standard is going to shake out to in the next two years, but I know what Elon Musk is offering - a car with great chargers plus the ability to tap into the anything else out there when needed. The other companies have to cooperate and come up with a solution or they will be just like Congress - shooting each other while the Country goes to pot literally and figuratively. - Pat, Vancouver
ReplyDeletethat is a LOT of "making do" I have to say that even if you were say below 20,000 AND picking a high end model, you won't get anything before mid 2018. I might be wrong but I doubt it. I am thinking 6 months just to ramp to 5,000 a month.
DeleteBut then again; right now Nissan is allowing at least 12 months extension on the LEAF. do that and your make do might be less than a year...
Person A: Tesla is great
ReplyDeleteB: Tesla is great....
Z: ( can't be special unless I say something negative )
Tesla is great for what they have already done but sorry; taking deposits a full 2 years before a car? mistake... or is it? gotta be easier than getting a no interest loan from the bank!
DeleteDave,
ReplyDeleteFully agree with you abut the risk to EV sales. Have we put in a two year delay of 232,000 EVs? Yes, I recognize that many require a 200+ mile range, but a Volt would cover most needs and the upcoming Bolt even more. It's been my conern for the last year when I heard folks talking about wait waiting for the 3. The message should be is "Don't wait, get the advantages of EVs today by leasing for 3 years and then look at the EV and it's competition."
Agreed and what most fail to realize is that the biggest failure to EV acceptance is public charging. If you could plug in every where you went, you would find that 100 miles in the morning was more than ok.
DeleteThe 2nd barrier is price. $35,000 for an EV that has 160+ miles of range is ok. For one that has 85 miles? no way.
the 3rd problem is Tesla hype. When has a product met the expectations of the commercial? Never and this will be no different. now what will fall short? well, guess we will find out in 2+ years...
The answer to the question is that this is going to be great for Nissan, IF they beat Tesla to market with G2LEAF and the G2LEAF goes 200+ on a charge as it is understood. It should benefit GM as well, but if you put a BOLT and M3 next to each other, Tesla might win. The Chevy is supposed to be in dealers at least a year ahead of the M3, and G2LEAF won't be far behind. It will be interesting to see how many M3 preorders are cancelled once G2LEAF sales commence.
ReplyDeleteExpect Nissan and Chevy to beat Tesla to market. Now I would expect no more than 150-175 miles from LEAF II but expect it to be cheaper than the T3. I would not be surprised to see entry level LEAF II's going 150 miles in the $32-34,000 range. That will be the market that blows up. But its all for naught if we can't get more public charging support!
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