I am guessing Tesla will be pushing a half million Tesla 3 orders by the time I publish this so why did I not get on the band wagon?
After all; its a near no risk venture. I can always get my $1000 deposit back at any time right? The only thing I would be missing is the .18% interest my checking account is currently paying me for my average daily balance. It would be a "struggle" but I would find another way to replace that "income."
Well first off; I love Tesla and I want one but its not likely in the cards for me in the foreseeable future. But Tesla is raising the bar of EV expectation which means a huge vacuum will be created in the 150ish mile range space pricewise as long as Tesla can pull off half the reservations within a reasonable time period and no I still don't believe they will have any significant deliveries of the T3 before Summer 2018.
The more significant reason is that the entire foundation holding up the T3 hype; an affordable electric vehicle with a range of over 200 miles will not be unique when it hits the streets. Tesla has already said that the higher end trims will be built first so expect to see the first $35,000 Tesla no earlier than 2020. This gives me plenty of time to do another 3 year lease. This is the most optimistic prediction I can muster.
Depending on the source (all of which is speculation if you want to be technical) ; the average price of the T3 in preorder is between $42,000 and $44,000. Which means a chunk of T3's are probably near $50,000 when you mix in the small amount of $35,000 orders so "not a high priority" right? Kinda like the S 40 or the S 60? I personally think the $35,000 T3 will NEVER hit the streets. This is my expectation. Tesla will realize there is more than enough work for higher trim T3's that lower trim is no longer needed and just like the S 40 fans, we will acquiesce...
Now I expect this comment to go over like a lead balloon. In any "hype verses expectation" discussion, hype always wins since its based on a best case scenario but the best part of all this is that Tesla hyping the car two full years before it hits the streets means that other manufacturers are already making moves to thwart Tesla.
Ford announced they are not going toe to toe with Tesla and will likely come out with a Ford Focus EV at 100 miles in the low 30's which means mid to low 20's effective price after the various perks like fed taxes, etc (of which Ford still has a ton left)
Nissan will likely come out with LEAF II starting around 150 miles of range but I expect them to offer multiple battery sizes (as options this time) for ones who just won't feel comfortable on their 30 mile commute with less than 200 miles of range. Expect the 150 mile version to be in the low 30's as well (Nissan will quickly exhaust their fed credits when this happens)
So yeah; love the T3 hype but only because it didn't kick everyone off the couch, it sent it off to Goodwill!!
No comments:
Post a Comment